Weblog Alex Reuneker

David F. Cameron Prediction

— Posted in Hardlopen by

I have added a calculator that uses David Cameron's (1998) formula published for Statistical Services of A. C. Nielsen Co.

enter image description here Cameron prediction calculator

Cameron used a number of times of world-level athletes from 400M to 50 Miles in a non-linear regression model to predict race times. I'll present the formula below.

predicted time = (timein/distancein)distanceout((13.49681-0.000030363distancein+ 835.7114/distancein0.7905)/(13.49681-0.000030363distanceout+835.7114/distanceout0.7905)

Here, timein is the known time from a known distance in seconds, distancein is the distance in meters you put in. Distanceout is the distance in meters you want to predict the time of (predicted time, or timeout).

On the calculator page, you can just select your own time at a certain distance and predict your time for another distance without any statistical knowledge.

For more information, see the following links.

https://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/cammod.html https://www.goandrace.com/en/race-time-predictor.php https://www.chatnrun.nl/calculator/faq/rp.php https://www.swimbikerun.net.nz/Calculators/RunningExpectationsCalculator

New calculator page

— Posted in Hardlopen by

I have updated and redesigned the calculator page. It's faster and more responsive than the previous version, and, lucky me, easier to maintain.

enter image description here Screenshot of the new calculator interface

I have added some new calculators as well, such as a simple pace to lap time calculator. The reason for this is that with the pandemic, I have run more track races than before and its pretty handy to know lap times instead of paces in such occasions.

My First Ultra

— Posted in Hardlopen by

Last Sunday I ran a distance beyond the marathon for the first time, one of the reasons being the frustration of having almost completed a tough training plan just when the marathon of Rotterdam got cancelled. Given the pandemic, I do understand and fully support this decision, of course, but it still sucks.

Trying an ultra-distance I didn't feel like racing on my own, because I do like having other runners around to group up with, keep each other out of wind et cetera, so I decided to try an ultra distance – a 50K, at long run pace, so around 4:30 per kilometer. Below you'll see the route.

enter image description here

It was a weird experience, running beyond 42K and especially doing it without other runners or people along the sides of the roads. Luckily, my wife was crazy enough to accompany me on her bike and provide me with support, drinks and, near the end, some small foods.

How it felt The only thing I regret is wearing Hoka Clifton's. Of course, they are made for long runs, but the toebox is so narrow that 35K may still be okay (I've worn them for most of my long runs), but not for more than that. I already felt chafing at 10K and I had two major blisters afterwards, while I actually never really have any blister issues.

enter image description here

During the run, there were the usual emotions: first 20K were fun, from 20 to 30K I felt okay, from 30 to 35K I was fed up with it, and from 35K onwards it was okay again, apart from the wind that got stronger and stronger. Hitting 42K I felt good until 47K and at that time, I just didn't want to run anymore. Of course, I kept on going, keeping cadence high and pace steady, but it felt like it cost a lot of energy. Which it probably did. Hitting 50K was a milestone, of course, and doing a 2K cooling-down felt okay, so mission accomplished.

Conclusion Would I do it again? Well, a 50K I'd do again, but only in an organised race, I think. And wearing different shoes, of course.

Running metronome MP3's

— Posted in Hardlopen by

It's been a while since I posted anything here. A lot has happened running-wise, most importantly of course cancellations, like the cancellation of the Rotterdam Marathon, due to the corona virus.

I'd like to focus here on something else however. I've created a simple page with downloadable metronome MP3 files, ranging from 170 to 200 BPM. Each MP3 is an hour long and can be looped in your favourite player.

enter image description here Photo by Steve Harvey on Unsplash

Although everyone can generate metronomes using Audacity, I thought it would be handy for others to be able to just download lengthy metronome MP3's. They're great to use when working on your cadence and technique.

If you're interested, the files are free of course and can be found on https://www.reuneker.nl/files/metronome. Enjoy!